Friday, February 27, 2009

6.2 percent!

BEA now says that real GDP fell 1.6 percent in Q4 (if that were repeated 3 more quarters, that would be -6.2 percent 2008 Q3 to 2009 Q3)! The -1.6 is revised from -0.95 (3.8 percent/year).

One of the components significantly revised seems to be with real investment -- now they say it fell 5.8 percent for the quarter, rather than the 3.3 percent previously estimated. I don't think they really changed their estimate of investment expenditure, just that they now say that investment goods prices ROSE at a 3.6 percent annual rate. I don't see how that could be true.

Nevertheless, even with this revision my investment-by-recession figure below stilll shows that the recession is "run of the mill" when it comes to investment.






Another significant component of revision seems to be nominal government spending.

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